Latin America Braces For Another Powerful El Niño Event
Latin America is preparing for the arrival of another powerful El Niño event, with its active phase beginning three months earlier than expected and forecasts suggesting it could become one of the strongest episodes recorded since 1950.
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have already exceeded the 0.5°C threshold used to classify an El Niño event, while current projections indicate a 63% probability that temperatures will rise above 2.0°C, placing it in the “strong” category.
The impacts of El Niño vary across the region. In northern South America, Central America and the Caribbean, higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and prolonged drought often accompany the phenomenon. These conditions can strain water supplies, worsen air quality and disrupt agricultural production. They also pose a significant risk to energy security, as many countries in the region depend heavily on hydroelectric power generation.
In contrast, southern parts of South America typically experience above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, landslides and transport disruptions. Warmer ocean temperatures and changing wind patterns may also create more favourable conditions for tropical storms and hurricanes.
The previous major El Niño event in 2024 highlighted the vulnerability of global logistics to extreme weather. Reduced rainfall in the Amazon basin caused water levels to fall dramatically, restricting navigation along key inland waterways and limiting access to major river ports.
At the same time, drought contributed to lower water levels in the Panama Canal, forcing transit restrictions that disrupted shipping schedules, increased freight costs and prompted vessels to seek alternative routes.
With another significant El Niño now developing, Envío will be closely monitoring conditions as potential disruptions across Latin American could impact supply chains in the months ahead.
